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Mesoscale Discussion 719
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma...Southwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130540Z - 130815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across parts of the
   temporal extension of severe thunderstorm 174. Isolated large hail
   and wind damage will be the primary threats. The severe potential is
   expected to gradually decrease and a new weather watch will probably
   not be needed beyond the 07Z expiration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe
   thunderstorms ongoing from the Texas Panhandle extending northward
   into southwest Kansas and eastward into western Oklahoma. These
   storms are located in a moist airmass with moderate instability in
   place. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values from around 1500 J/kg
   across much of the Texas Panhandle to near 3000 J/kg in parts of
   southwest Kansas. In addition, a 30 to 40 kt low-level jet is
   located across the southern High Plains. The MCS is located in the
   exit region of the low-level jet where lift is maximized. This
   combined with the instability will help maintain the storms within
   the MCS for several more hours and a severe threat is expected to
   continue. Although the supercell potential has diminished, isolated
   large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with the
   stronger multicells.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33549944 33360097 33720200 34890221 37070234 37550137
               37620072 37689978 37589867 36949831 34729878 33549944 

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