|Mesoscale Discussion 721|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0721
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Areas affected...northern NE...southern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131614Z - 131715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail associated with elevated thunderstorms may
continue to persist for the next few hours. The limited spatial
extent of the expected threat will likely preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms
straddling the NE/SD vicinity to the west of the MO River. MRMS
data indicates hail size has ranged from 1-2.5 inches during the
past half hour. This activity is forming within a zone of warm air
advection and is implied by the strongly veering flow per KLNX VAD
data. The residual frontal zone is draped near and west of the area
from southwest NE northward into southwest SD. To the west of the
boundary, a pronounced moist axis is evident in surface
observational data with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
lowering into the middle 50s in north-central NE/south-central SD.
A weak mid-level vorticity lobe over eastern WY moving into
southwest SD/northern NE Panhandle may be partly responsible for the
ongoing thunderstorm uptick in coverage. As this feature slowly
moves eastward along the NE/SD border during the early afternoon, it
may continue to support additional elevated thunderstorms. Sporadic
occurrences of large hail may continue for the next few hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42510138 43480204 43930122 43880023 42849972 42429995
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home