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Mesoscale Discussion 721
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0721
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...northern NE...southern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131614Z - 131715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail associated with elevated thunderstorms may
   continue to persist for the next few hours.  The limited spatial
   extent of the expected threat will likely preclude a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar data shows a cluster of thunderstorms
   straddling the NE/SD vicinity to the west of the MO River.  MRMS
   data indicates hail size has ranged from 1-2.5 inches during the
   past half hour.  This activity is forming within a zone of warm air
   advection and is implied by the strongly veering flow per KLNX VAD
   data.  The residual frontal zone is draped near and west of the area
   from southwest NE northward into southwest SD.  To the west of the
   boundary, a pronounced moist axis is evident in surface
   observational data with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s and
   lowering into the middle 50s in north-central NE/south-central SD.  

   A weak mid-level vorticity lobe over eastern WY moving into
   southwest SD/northern NE Panhandle may be partly responsible for the
   ongoing thunderstorm uptick in coverage.  As this feature slowly
   moves eastward along the NE/SD border during the early afternoon, it
   may continue to support additional elevated thunderstorms.  Sporadic
   occurrences of large hail may continue for the next few hours.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42510138 43480204 43930122 43880023 42849972 42429995
               42320062 42510138 

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