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Mesoscale Discussion 722
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...portions of northwest PA...western into northern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 131930Z - 132030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move east from Ontario into western NY
   later this afternoon.  Isolated severe hail/50-65mph winds will
   accompany the stronger thunderstorms.  Lower thunderstorm
   coverage/lower confidence for severe thunderstorms is expected
   farther south in northern PA.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over
   western NY into northwest PA as a thicker cloud shield
   dissipates/moves east into central NY.  Recent subjective surface
   analysis indicated a moist axis extended from the OH Valley
   northeastward into northwest PA and western NY.  Surface dewpoints
   within this corridor range from 66-70 degrees F and temperatures are
   warming into the lower 80s---effectively resulting in the
   development of moderate buoyancy (1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the Finger
   Lakes southwestward into northwest PA.  

   Water-vapor imagery also shows a well defined mid-level shortwave
   trough moving across the Great Lakes with a 70kt 500mb speed max
   moving east through the base of the trough over southeast Lower MI
   and southwest Ontario.  As of 315pm EDT, 60kt westerly flow was
   sampled by the KBUF VAD, indicating the stronger mid-level flow is
   moving into far western NY.  With the strengthening flow and
   moderate buoyancy, organized multicells and supercells are possible
   with the primary hazards being isolated hail/damaging winds.  The
   veered southwesterly flow in the low levels will likely limit the
   potential tornado risk with any supercell.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41297901 41717693 43367405 44737295 45047485 43477696
               43337896 41887995 41297901 

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