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Mesoscale Discussion 723
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0723
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...The Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131942Z - 132145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and wind gusts are possible along
   and east of the Southern Rockies in Colorado and northern New Mexico
   as storms mature and move east/southeast onto the High Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Building cumulus over the Southern Rockies have
   increased including some maturation into thunderstorms over the past
   hour. Ongoing surface heating will continue to destabilize
   low-levels, and stronger updrafts should tap into steep mid-level
   lapse rates (8+ C/km) and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Due to the
   vigorous low-level mixing, surface dewpoints have dropped 4-8F
   during the afternoon. Higher LCLs are expected and with DCAPE values
   of 1000+ J/kg strong downburst wind gusts are possible with any
   mature storms. Thunderstorms are anticipated to mature and
   eventually move off the higher terrain and across the High Plains in
   the next 1-2 hours. Modest effective bulk shear (25-35 knots) could
   lead to a few organized storms capable of severe hail and wind
   gusts. However, large-scale organization of severe thunderstorms is
   not anticipated thus a watch is unlikely.

   ..Nauslar/Dean/Grams.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36020555 36690531 37310531 37790528 38270524 38890516
               39840508 39900482 39920424 39860342 39260332 37860330
               36610335 35830344 35780426 35830505 36020555 

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