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Mesoscale Discussion 724
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0724
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132014Z - 132215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and just
   ahead of a cold front stretching from southeastern Illinois to
   eastern Ohio. Marginally severe hail/wind are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is moving east-southeast across
   the Ohio Valley as an upper level shortwave trough moves across
   southern Canada. MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg along and ahead of
   the front and effective bulk shear values of 25-35 knots should
   produce some organized convection. Very dry air above 700mb may
   inhibit sustained updraft intensity, but sufficient forcing should
   continue to develop new updrafts along the cold front. Additionally,
   surface dewpoints in the 70s and mean mixing ratios ~15 g/kg should
   provide enough moisture for continued thunderstorm development.
   Marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts are possible with any
   sustained, mature cells, but widespread coverage of severe
   thunderstorms is not anticipated.

   ..Nauslar/Dean/Grams.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39328808 39468752 39778626 40218454 40528319 40698253
               40878182 39858145 39668190 39468251 39318324 39008452
               38738594 38538714 38318821 38678845 39168854 39328808 

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