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Mesoscale Discussion 725
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...and the
   northern West Virginia panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 132210Z - 132345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along and ahead of the cold
   front. If storm coverage increases, a severe thunderstorm watch may
   be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along and
   ahead of the cold front in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
   These storms have formed in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500
   J/kg and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots. The stronger flow aloft
   extends down below 2 km per the PBZ 88D VWP. Thus, any storm
   organization should support sufficient momentum transfer of these
   stronger winds to the surface. Isolated large hail is possible with
   the strongest updrafts, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
   the overall hail threat. Storm coverage will be a question with weak
   convergence along the front and the better forcing to the north.
   Will continue to monitor storm development in this area and may need
   a severe thunderstorm watch if storm coverage increases and a more
   organized severe threat appears likely.

   ..Bentley/Weiss.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41997973 41997865 41917815 41857714 41487686 40797695
               40357714 39827767 39757874 39828014 39778056 39778134
               39818184 39848213 40038221 40938070 41997973 

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