|Mesoscale Discussion 725|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...and the
northern West Virginia panhandle.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 132210Z - 132345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along and ahead of the cold
front. If storm coverage increases, a severe thunderstorm watch may
DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along and
ahead of the cold front in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
These storms have formed in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots. The stronger flow aloft
extends down below 2 km per the PBZ 88D VWP. Thus, any storm
organization should support sufficient momentum transfer of these
stronger winds to the surface. Isolated large hail is possible with
the strongest updrafts, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit
the overall hail threat. Storm coverage will be a question with weak
convergence along the front and the better forcing to the north.
Will continue to monitor storm development in this area and may need
a severe thunderstorm watch if storm coverage increases and a more
organized severe threat appears likely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41997973 41997865 41917815 41857714 41487686 40797695
40357714 39827767 39757874 39828014 39778056 39778134
39818184 39848213 40038221 40938070 41997973
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