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Mesoscale Discussion 726
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Minnesota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 202...203...

   Valid 120001Z - 120100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 202, 203 continues.

   SUMMARY...A fast-moving bow echo with embedded supercell structures,
   along with isolated supercells ahead of the line, will pose a risk
   of intense damaging wind gusts and tornadoes over southern Minnesota
   (including the MSP metro area) during the next 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A mature bowing MCS has developed during the past
   couple of hours over southwest MN, moving northeastward now at 35-40
   knots.  Individual storms are tracking north-northeastward, while
   the MCS moves eastward along a well-defined surface warm front. 
   Low-level shear profiles are rapidly strengthening along/north of
   the warm front with the latest MPX VAD showing 0-3km SRH of 600-900
   m2/s2.  It appears likely that the bowing line will remain severe as
   it tracks eastward into the MSP metro area between 01-02z.  Isolated
   cells ahead of the bow may rapidly become supercellular with a
   tornado risk, while QLCS tornadoes and corridors of damaging winds
   will be possible along the convective line.

   ..Hart.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45209341 45129225 44319190 43719216 43089459 43369535
               43989519 44869528 45169428 45209341 

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