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Mesoscale Discussion 727
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0727
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

   Areas affected...Parts of the central and southern high Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132331Z - 140100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some intensification to widely scattered thunderstorm
   development still appears possible into and through the 7-9 PM MDT
   time frame.  Some of this may be accompanied by a risk for severe
   hail and strong surface gusts, but the overall threat is generally
   not expected to require a severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development off the Colorado and
   northern New Mexico Rockies has likely been suppressed by generally
   weak shear and perhaps marginal instability.  However, a light
   westerly deep layer mean flow will continue to aid eastward
   propagation into the high Plains of Colorado, and along the southern
   slopes of the Raton Mesa, where modest but increasing low-level
   moisture is supporting at least somewhat larger CAPE.  20+ kt
   southerly low-level flow east of the higher terrain is also
   contributing to deep layer shear more favorable to convective
   organization, and boundary layer decoupling may result in low-level
   jet strengthening to 30-40+ kt by late evening.  Thus, there appears
   at least a window of opportunity for some increase in thunderstorms
   with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts, before activity
   diminishes in waning boundary layer instability later this evening.

   ..Kerr/Weiss.. 06/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36140470 36720443 37370393 38670304 39250266 40330261
               40840226 40750111 39590129 37180194 35930322 35400463
               36140470 

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