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Mesoscale Discussion 737
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Ohio and West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 100000Z - 100200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local/isolated risk for strong wind gusts will persist for
   a few hours.  WW not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an uptick in convection from
   southern Ohio to northern West Virginia, in the vicinity of a
   southeastern Ohio surface low, and attendant baroclinic zones. 
   Ahead of the front, RAP-based objective analysis suggests that
   diurnal heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE to near 1000 J/kg across
   the Ohio River Valley area, which is contributing to the convective
   uptick, ahead of the mid-level vort max crossing Lake Erie/Ohio at
   this time.

   Moderately strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower and
   middle troposphere is indicated across this region, which may
   support some additional, small-scale convective organization. 
   Attendant severe risk -- primarily in the form of locally
   gusty/damaging winds with stronger convective elements -- will
   likely continue for the next 2 to 3 hours.  Thereafter, as nocturnal
   cooling commences, severe risk is expected to gradually diminish. 
   As such, limited risk -- both in temporally and in terms of
   magnitude -- will likely preclude any need for WW issuance.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38908359 39228308 39638161 39837995 39417924 38597959
               37848057 37908187 38548299 38908359 

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