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Mesoscale Discussion 748
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0748
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152338Z - 160115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are expected this evening.
   Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed between Gillette and
   Casper. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and 0 to 6 km shear around 55 knots
   via the 23Z RIW VWP will support supercell storm mode. A well-mixed
   sub-cloud layer and very steep mid-level lapse rates will support
   both damaging winds and large hail for the next few hours. Surface
   dewpoints have mixed out into the low 40s in northeast Wyoming which
   has led to MLCAPE less than 250 J/kg. This may limit the longevity
   of these supercells as they move northeast into this airmass. The
   primary limiting factors for watch issuance is the limited storm
   coverage (2 to 3 stronger storms) and limited longevity of the
   storms this evening.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/15/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43410651 44500648 44900609 44900560 44890514 44910462
               44890429 44900413 44790395 44370390 43950388 43590391
               43230393 42980400 42780422 42610456 42560522 42620577
               42960626 43410651 

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