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Mesoscale Discussion 750
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

   Areas of west/central and northwest Texas toward
   the Red River

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132041Z - 132315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are expected to form after 22Z
   over parts of west-central and northwest Texas, producing a few
   severe gusts and large hail. If severe coverage is to be more than
   isolated, then a watch may be considered.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating and temperatures
   approaching 100 F in the San Angelo to Abilene area, which is also
   within a zone of weak surface convergence extending from southwest
   TX into southwest OK. This also overlaps with the instability axis
   of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE as dewpoints hold in the 50s to near 60 F. East
   of this region, lower overall moisture content is evident, with PWAT
   < 1.00" across much of central TX.

   Visible imagery shows CU beginning to form near the surface trough
   and within the surface theta-e axis. Models suggest storms forming
   around 22-23Z in this region, and persisting for a few hours. Weak
   low-level flow and modest westerlies aloft suggest
   east/southeastward-moving cells or clusters capable of producing
   substantial outflow winds. Moderate instability with steep overall
   lapse rate profiles further support hail with the stronger cells.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 05/13/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33779947 34289873 34449802 34359774 33979754 33429773
               32029867 31459949 31270055 31430133 31920148 33779947 

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