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Mesoscale Discussion 750
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of northern South Dakota and southern
   North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161413Z - 161545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized swath of severe hail remains possible with an
   isolated supercell over northern South Dakota this morning. Due to
   uncertainty regarding expected coverage/persistence of the threat,
   the need for a watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell, very likely producing severe
   hail based on a myriad of radar signatures, is progressing northeast
   across Corson Co, SD around 20-25 kt. Although convectively
   contaminated, the 12Z ABR sounding suggested the presence of
   favorable mid-level buoyancy (associated with a residual EML over
   the region). Additionally, ABR VWP and mesoanalysis data indicate
   40+ kt of effective shear is available for continued updraft
   rotation and large hail growth. Uncertainty exists regarding the
   development of other severe cells, as well as the persistence of
   this particular supercell, due to the somewhat nebulous nature of
   large-scale ascent. Therefore, watch issuance is fairly uncertain.
   Still, the presence of some warm advection around 850-700mb,
   combined with non-linear effects from the rotating updraft itself,
   may maintain this threat through late morning as the cell continues

   ..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45810164 46519993 46799862 46689800 45789774 45219793
               44810030 44560211 44750254 45810164 

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