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Mesoscale Discussion 0750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022
Areas affected...parts of west/central and northwest Texas toward
the Red River
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132041Z - 132315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are expected to form after 22Z
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas, producing a few
severe gusts and large hail. If severe coverage is to be more than
isolated, then a watch may be considered.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating and temperatures
approaching 100 F in the San Angelo to Abilene area, which is also
within a zone of weak surface convergence extending from southwest
TX into southwest OK. This also overlaps with the instability axis
of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE as dewpoints hold in the 50s to near 60 F. East
of this region, lower overall moisture content is evident, with PWAT
< 1.00" across much of central TX.
Visible imagery shows CU beginning to form near the surface trough
and within the surface theta-e axis. Models suggest storms forming
around 22-23Z in this region, and persisting for a few hours. Weak
low-level flow and modest westerlies aloft suggest
east/southeastward-moving cells or clusters capable of producing
substantial outflow winds. Moderate instability with steep overall
lapse rate profiles further support hail with the stronger cells.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33779947 34289873 34449802 34359774 33979754 33429773
32029867 31459949 31270055 31430133 31920148 33779947
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