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Mesoscale Discussion 751
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0447 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

   Areas affected...Upper Michigan...Eastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132147Z - 140015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will continue to develop across
   western Upper Michigan southward into eastern Wisconsin. Marginally
   severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats, but weather
   watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-resolution radar from Green Bay, Wisconsin shows a
   north-to-south broken line of thunderstorms with a couple strong
   multicells. This line is located along an axis of weak instability,
   where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 250 to 1000 J/kg range.
   Although deep-layer shear is also weak, the RAP is showing a narrow
   corridor where 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9.0 C/km. This
   thermodynamic profile will help downdraft acceleration and make
   marginally severe wind gusts possible over the next few hours. The
   severe threat should remain isolated but will gradually move
   eastward toward the western shore of Lake Michigan through early

   ..Broyles.. 05/13/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45488749 46238735 46778749 46928776 46928803 46728844
               46188879 45058918 43378959 42898967 42508946 42338901
               42528844 43078817 44428787 45488749 

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