Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018
Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162022Z - 162115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms, capable of isolated
damaging winds and large hail, are possible into this evening.
Although the threat should be spatially confined sufficiently to
preclude watch issuance, trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Merging outflow and lake breeze boundaries, combined
with a wedge of favorable heating/moisture, are leading to vigorous
convective initiation over Wisconsin this afternoon. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and adequate effective shear, noted in veering winds
with height in KARX VWP data, may support a few storms capable of
large hail and damaging winds into this evening. The threat should
be confined by the relatively narrow nature of favorable
instability/low-level convergence (evident in visible imagery),
likely precluding watch issuance. Nonetheless, trends will be
monitored in case a greater threat evolves.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42889047 44099041 44809009 44898963 44898963 44688918
43958902 42768929 42598956 42619009 42659027 42889047