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Mesoscale Discussion 754
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0754
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162022Z - 162115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms, capable of isolated
   damaging winds and large hail, are possible into this evening.
   Although the threat should be spatially confined sufficiently to
   preclude watch issuance, trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Merging outflow and lake breeze boundaries, combined
   with a wedge of favorable heating/moisture, are leading to vigorous
   convective initiation over Wisconsin this afternoon. Steep mid-level
   lapse rates and adequate effective shear, noted in veering winds
   with height in KARX VWP data, may support a few storms capable of
   large hail and damaging winds into this evening. The threat should
   be confined by the relatively narrow nature of favorable
   instability/low-level convergence (evident in visible imagery),
   likely precluding watch issuance. Nonetheless, trends will be
   monitored in case a greater threat evolves.

   ..Picca/Grams.. 06/16/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42889047 44099041 44809009 44898963 44898963 44688918
               43958902 42768929 42598956 42619009 42659027 42889047 

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