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Mesoscale Discussion 756
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0756
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern Lower MI..Eastern IN...Western OH...Far
   Northern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141807Z - 142030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts may
   occur this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A similar thermodynamic environment covers the region
   from eastern Lower MI southward into eastern IN/western OH, with
   temperatures in the low/mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s/low
   60s. This air mass has destabilized amid diurnal heating, and
   scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop as a
   weak front approaches. Given the lack of stronger vertical shear, a
   predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant mode is anticipated.
   Some forward-propagation along storm outflows may occur, but updraft
   duration should remain limited. A few damaging wind gusts may occur
   with any more robust updrafts, particularly if updraft augmentation
   occurs as a result of storm mergers. Overall severe coverage is
   expected to be limited.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44948475 45408410 45248353 44758332 44028354 43848336
               43958277 42628250 41958323 40978260 39028339 38848567
               39718659 42038498 42858478 43428485 44118489 44948475 

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