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Mesoscale Discussion 757
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0757
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Areas affected...South-Central MO...North-Central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141939Z - 142215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong downburst or two is possible over portions of
   south-central MO and north-central AR this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted within the
   area of deeper cumulus over central MO/AR border vicinity. Modest
   low-level moisture convergence over the region will likely result in
   continued convective attempts and eventually a few deeper, more
   persistent updrafts. The overall environment is characterized by
   weak shear and moderate buoyancy, with a predominantly multicellular
   storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates will
   likely support a strong downburst or two. Additional development is
   possible on any storm outflow, with discrete propagation into more
   of north-central AR possible. Limited severe coverage will preclude
   the need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35729349 36579362 36969347 37439255 37159172 36189108
               35259147 35159287 35729349 

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