Mesoscale Discussion 0758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022
Areas affected...western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141956Z - 142230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated cells are expected to form by 21Z, and marginal
hail or gusty winds may occur.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows an expansive CU field across
western KS, near a weak surface trough and south of a cold front
nearing the NE/KS state line. Continued heating and weak convergence
near the boundary should yield isolated thunderstorms perhaps by
21Z, and persisting for a few hours.
Boundary-layer moisture quality appears poor, as dewpoints continue
to mix into the 50-55 F range and total PWAT is generally around
0.75" inches. However, pockets of slightly better moisture may exist
across northwest KS where moisture convergence persists near the
Winds below 700 mb are weak, but do veer with height. Hodographs
lengthen in the mid and upper levels with speeds of 50 kt toward EL
level. As such, a few slow-moving thunderstorms are anticipated,
with marginally severe hail possible. Deep mixed layers also suggest
gusty outflow winds will be possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39930062 39979949 39779906 39449889 39089884 38629890
38089925 37639997 37500053 37740102 38240121 38690145
39580144 39860136 39930062