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Mesoscale Discussion 758
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0758
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Areas affected...western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141956Z - 142230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated cells are expected to form by 21Z, and marginal
   hail or gusty winds may occur.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows an expansive CU field across
   western KS, near a weak surface trough and south of a cold front
   nearing the NE/KS state line. Continued heating and weak convergence
   near the boundary should yield isolated thunderstorms perhaps by
   21Z, and persisting for a few hours.

   Boundary-layer moisture quality appears poor, as dewpoints continue
   to mix into the 50-55 F range and total PWAT is generally around
   0.75" inches. However, pockets of slightly better moisture may exist
   across northwest KS where moisture convergence persists near the

   Winds below 700 mb are weak, but do veer with height. Hodographs
   lengthen in the mid and upper levels with speeds of 50 kt toward EL
   level. As such, a few slow-moving thunderstorms are anticipated,
   with marginally severe hail possible. Deep mixed layers also suggest
   gusty outflow winds will be possible.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39930062 39979949 39779906 39449889 39089884 38629890
               38089925 37639997 37500053 37740102 38240121 38690145
               39580144 39860136 39930062 

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