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Mesoscale Discussion 759
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0759
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Areas affected...parts of west-central into northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142018Z - 142245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms are expected to form by 21Z over
   west-central Texas, and a few cells may produce marginally severe
   hail or wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dryline extending south from
   the eastern TX Panhandle, with a weak low near SWW where
   temperatures are over 100 F. Dewpoints are generally in the 50s F,
   but low 60s F exist into central TX with PWAT generally around 0.80
   inches per GPS water vapor sensors.

   Visible imagery shows convection beginning to form along the
   dryline, and a few of the storms may gain strength as they move very
   slowly. The steep lapse rate environment combined with sufficient
   instability should support a couple marginally severe storms
   producing hail near 1.00-1.50" and gusty winds before dissipating
   after sunset.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   31720082 32190042 32770008 33370004 34349997 34309957
               34159947 32909943 32219874 31719840 31209849 31009888
               31180064 31420087 31720082 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2022
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