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Mesoscale Discussion 760
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0760
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022

   Areas affected...southwest KS...northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142306Z - 150000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large to very large hail (1-3 inches in diameter) is
   forecast with supercells through 9pm.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from Dodge City over the past couple of
   hours has shown a few intense hail-producing supercells.  Steep
   lapse rates from 800-250 mb were noted on the 12z Dodge City raob
   and a strongly veering wind profile is favorable for optimizing
   hail-growth via discrete storm mode.  Surface analysis indicates
   richer low-level moisture is present across northwest OK (dewpoints
   near 60 F) compared to the area near Dodge City (upper 40s to 50 F).
   Given the larger buoyancy southeast of the existing storms, it seems
   some continuation or additional storm development in coverage is
   possible.  Widely scattered supercells capable of large to very
   large hail and isolated severe gusts are possible into the mid
   evening hours.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 05/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36329991 37450011 38089957 38359856 36579817 35859890
               36329991 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2022
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