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Mesoscale Discussion 768
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0768
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Areas affected...Far East-Central MO...Central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241715Z - 241845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may pose a threat for a damaging wind gust
   and hail. A couple tornadoes are also possible. Convective trends
   will be monitored for increasing storm coverage that could result in
   the need for a watch,

   DISCUSSION...Current surface analysis places a warm front extending
   eastward across central IL (from just north of UIN to near DNV).
   Temperatures south of the boundary are in the 80s with dewpoints in
   the low 70s. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm but the warm and
   moist boundary layer still results in moderate instability. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and RAP forecast
   soundings suggest MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg by 18Z. This area is also on
   the edge of the stronger low to mid-level flow with effective bulk
   shear decreasing from 50 kt across west-central IL to 40 kt over
   east-central IL/west-central IN. 

   Recent intensification of the storm over Hancock County IL has been
   noted. This intensification is likely a result of interaction with
   the warm front. The northeasterly storm motion should take the storm
   north of the warm front and into an area less favorable for
   surface-based storms. Even so, adequate shear exists for storm
   rotation and some storm organization could persist north of the
   boundary with an attendant hail threat. South of the front, most
   likely severe hazard is damaging downburst winds, although some hail
   is also possible. Veered surface winds within the warm sector
   suggest low tornado potential across much of the area. The only
   exception is along the warm front where enhanced surface vorticity
   could augment the tornado threat. 

   Storm coverage is uncertain, leading to lower watch probability.
   However, convective trends will be monitored closely for increasing
   coverage that could necessitate a watch.

   ..Mosier/Dial.. 05/24/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40849088 41039024 41228885 40598778 39288801 39249115
               40249148 40849088 

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