|Mesoscale Discussion 768|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Areas affected...Far East-Central MO...Central IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 241715Z - 241845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms may pose a threat for a damaging wind gust
and hail. A couple tornadoes are also possible. Convective trends
will be monitored for increasing storm coverage that could result in
the need for a watch,
DISCUSSION...Current surface analysis places a warm front extending
eastward across central IL (from just north of UIN to near DNV).
Temperatures south of the boundary are in the 80s with dewpoints in
the low 70s. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm but the warm and
moist boundary layer still results in moderate instability. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and RAP forecast
soundings suggest MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg by 18Z. This area is also on
the edge of the stronger low to mid-level flow with effective bulk
shear decreasing from 50 kt across west-central IL to 40 kt over
east-central IL/west-central IN.
Recent intensification of the storm over Hancock County IL has been
noted. This intensification is likely a result of interaction with
the warm front. The northeasterly storm motion should take the storm
north of the warm front and into an area less favorable for
surface-based storms. Even so, adequate shear exists for storm
rotation and some storm organization could persist north of the
boundary with an attendant hail threat. South of the front, most
likely severe hazard is damaging downburst winds, although some hail
is also possible. Veered surface winds within the warm sector
suggest low tornado potential across much of the area. The only
exception is along the warm front where enhanced surface vorticity
could augment the tornado threat.
Storm coverage is uncertain, leading to lower watch probability.
However, convective trends will be monitored closely for increasing
coverage that could necessitate a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40849088 41039024 41228885 40598778 39288801 39249115
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