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Mesoscale Discussion 772
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0772
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

   Areas affected...Eastern IA...Far Southwest WI...Far Northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242025Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch may be needed within the next few hours as storms
   increase in coverage across eastern IA, far southwest WI, and far
   northwest IL. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards,
   including a couple of tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places an occluded front arcing
   from west-central MN into central IA and then back southwest into
   far northeast KS. A warm front intersects this occluded front near
   BNW (in central IA) and then extends southeastward through central
   IL. Warm sector across southern IA/northern MO is characterized by
   temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the upper
   60s/low 70s. Expectation is for the warm front to continue lifting
   northward through central/east-central IA and northern IL over the
   next several hours. 

   Air mass along and south of the warm front is expected to
   destabilize as temperatures climb into the 80s. RAP forecast
   soundings indicate an uncapped air mass with over 1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE will exist across much of central/eastern IA by 21-22Z. Some
   minimal convective inhibition may persist across northern
   IL/southern WI until closer to 00Z. 

   Convective initiation is expected within the next hour or two,
   likely along the occluded front or near the warm front. There is
   some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but overall environment
   suggests that the storms that do form will likely be severe. All
   hazards are possible, including tornadoes.

   ..Mosier/Dial.. 05/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   42259363 42549318 43129133 42948950 41038967 40589087
               40419339 40839418 42259363 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2019
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