|Mesoscale Discussion 772|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019
Areas affected...Eastern IA...Far Southwest WI...Far Northwest IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242025Z - 242130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A watch may be needed within the next few hours as storms
increase in coverage across eastern IA, far southwest WI, and far
northwest IL. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards,
including a couple of tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places an occluded front arcing
from west-central MN into central IA and then back southwest into
far northeast KS. A warm front intersects this occluded front near
BNW (in central IA) and then extends southeastward through central
IL. Warm sector across southern IA/northern MO is characterized by
temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s. Expectation is for the warm front to continue lifting
northward through central/east-central IA and northern IL over the
next several hours.
Air mass along and south of the warm front is expected to
destabilize as temperatures climb into the 80s. RAP forecast
soundings indicate an uncapped air mass with over 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE will exist across much of central/eastern IA by 21-22Z. Some
minimal convective inhibition may persist across northern
IL/southern WI until closer to 00Z.
Convective initiation is expected within the next hour or two,
likely along the occluded front or near the warm front. There is
some uncertainty regarding storm coverage, but overall environment
suggests that the storms that do form will likely be severe. All
hazards are possible, including tornadoes.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42259363 42549318 43129133 42948950 41038967 40589087
40419339 40839418 42259363
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