Mesoscale Discussion 0781
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141430Z - 141630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should approach the Tampa metro
   and vicinity around 15-16Z (11 AM - Noon EDT), while posing a threat
   for mainly damaging winds. New watch issuance is possible to address
   this potential.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing
   this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent forward motion
   of this activity suggests it should approach the FL Gulf Coast by
   15-16Z. The 12Z sounding from TBW shows relatively cool mid-level
   temperatures for FL (-10 C at 500 mb), along with steepened lapse
   rates associated with an EML above 700 mb. But, there is still a
   residual cap noted between 800-700 mb, which may tend to limit
   updraft intensity over land in the short term. Recent surface
   observations and visible satellite imagery also show strong
   thunderstorms have developed along trailing outflow from earlier
   convection across the north-central FL Peninsula. As robust daytime
   heating of a very moist low-level airmass continues along/south of
   this boundary, lingering MLCIN should gradually erode. Around
   2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will conditionally support intense
   updrafts, with sufficiently strong mid-level westerly flow and
   related deep-layer shear also fostering organized convection.

   Thunderstorm evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat
   unclear, as recent IR satellite trends show warming cloud tops with
   the eastern Gulf convection. There is still some chance that strong
   to severe thunderstorms consolidate along the outflow boundary over
   the next couple of hours, and continue spreading eastward across the
   central FL Peninsula this afternoon. If this scenario materializes,
   then scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph would likely be the
   main threat as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. A brief
   tornado or two may also occur, although low-level flow has had a
   tendency to veer to southwesterly this morning per latest VWPs from
   KTBW, which has reduced 0-1 km SRH. Marginally severe hail also
   appears possible with the more robust updrafts. It remains unclear
   whether a new watch will be needed, but observational trends will be
   closely monitored.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28838244 29328173 29398092 27968019 27428130 27288265
               27768309 28428309 28838244