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Mesoscale Discussion 788
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0788
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of north/central FL into extreme southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 150545Z - 150745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible
   overnight, with some threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
   possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing early this morning across
   parts of north FL, in the vicinity of a diffuse low-level baroclinic
   zone and in the immediate wake of an MCV that has just moved
   offshore of northeast FL. While there has been some cooling through
   the evening, the environment sampled by the 00Z TBW sounding largely
   remains in place across parts of central/northern FL, with moderate
   MLCAPE and deep-layer shear supporting a conditionally favorable
   environment for organized convection, including the potential for

   The evolution of convection remains somewhat uncertain across the FL
   Peninsula overnight, but in general, an increase in storm coverage
   is expected with time. Initial development may continue to be
   focused across the northern FL, in closer proximity to the primary
   baroclinic zone, with some increase possible toward central FL by
   later this morning. Large hail and locally damaging wind will be
   possible, if any more organized cells/clusters can be sustained.
   Also, while there will be some lingering low-level stability
   overnight, a tornado cannot be ruled out if a stronger supercell can
   persist, especially in areas where richer low-level moisture
   (dewpoints in the mid 70s F) is in place. The need for short-term
   watch issuance is uncertain, but will become increasingly possible
   with time overnight.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27958272 28258303 29768355 30348303 30818188 30688135
               30418130 29818096 29698091 29028065 28418078 28418086

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