|Mesoscale Discussion 792|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018
Areas affected...Southern/Eastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191838Z - 192045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing across parts of Wyoming and some
could become severe this afternoon. Large hail and strong wind gusts
are the main threats.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is centered near Yellowstone with
vorticity maxima rotating around the southern/eastern periphery
providing forcing for ascent across Wyoming per recent satellite
imagery. The falling heights/temperatures aloft should steepen lapse
rates/increase buoyancy with forecast RAP MLCAPE values of 500-1000
J/kg this afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft (freezing level at
625 mb) along with increasing buoyancy/shear should allow for
efficient hail growth.
Cloud cover over southeastern Wyoming is currently inhibiting
substantial destabilization. If surface heating increases ahead of
the developing storms, the wind threat could increase with steeper
low-level lapse rates and higher LCLs. Moisture is limited to the
west (surface dewpoints < 50F; precipitable water 0.5-0.7"), but
does increase across far southeast Wyoming. A loosely-organized
multi-cell cluster is expected to continue across Wyoming and
possibly building upscale into a MCS later this evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41020659 41420671 42300678 42980654 43380588 43210516
42770451 42280413 41650395 41000396 41020659
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