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Mesoscale Discussion 792
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

   Areas affected...Southern/Eastern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191838Z - 192045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are developing across parts of Wyoming and some
   could become severe this afternoon. Large hail and strong wind gusts
   are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is centered near Yellowstone with
   vorticity maxima rotating around the southern/eastern periphery
   providing forcing for ascent across Wyoming per recent satellite
   imagery. The falling heights/temperatures aloft should steepen lapse
   rates/increase buoyancy with forecast RAP MLCAPE values of 500-1000
   J/kg this afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft (freezing level at
   625 mb) along with increasing buoyancy/shear should allow for
   efficient hail growth. 

   Cloud cover over southeastern Wyoming is currently inhibiting
   substantial destabilization. If surface heating increases ahead of
   the developing storms, the wind threat could increase with steeper
   low-level lapse rates and higher LCLs. Moisture is limited to the
   west (surface dewpoints < 50F; precipitable water 0.5-0.7"), but
   does increase across far southeast Wyoming. A loosely-organized
   multi-cell cluster is expected to continue across Wyoming and
   possibly building upscale into a MCS later this evening.

   ..Nauslar/Peters/Weiss.. 06/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41020659 41420671 42300678 42980654 43380588 43210516
               42770451 42280413 41650395 41000396 41020659 

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