Mesoscale Discussion 0797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Areas affected...Portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles...into extreme eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...
Valid 252325Z - 260100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
SUMMARY...Some severe threat continues across portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0238, predominantly with a supercellular
convective cluster north of Lubbock, Texas. Otherwise, the severe
threat is expected to diminish with the onset of nocturnal cooling
and deep-moist convective mixing of the troposphere.
DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0238, particularly in the vicinity of Hale
County, north of Lubbock, where a tornado was reported with a
rightward moving, dominant supercell. This supercell originated from
a northward propagating convective cluster, with a defined outflow
boundary. Along and north of this outflow boundary, new cellular
development has been noted. A few of these newer storms may pose a
short term severe hail threat, and perhaps some risk for damaging
Otherwise, much of the airmass has overturned across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0238 by earlier rounds of vigorous convection.
Given that peak heating has already passed for the area, and given
the decrease in the cumulus field behind the earlier convection, it
appears that the primary severe threat will remain with the storms
immediately north of Lubbock, with an overall decrease in convective
intensity expected as storms move east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
0238, and with the onset of nocturnal cooling/boundary layer
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33150155 33140392 33960399 35270358 35470287 35510230
35450152 35360114 33250153 33150155