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Mesoscale Discussion 802
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0802
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161812Z - 162045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop after 19Z from southeast
   Texas into southwest Louisiana. Large hail as well as damaging gusts
   will be likely, and a brief tornado will be possible as well.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms stretching from central into northeast
   TX continues to shift east/southeast, with prominent outflow.
   Although the air mass ahead of this line continues to gradually
   destabilize due to heating, a surge of rich boundary layer moisture
   is moving in from the southwest, and this will provide a greater
   contribution. GPS PWAT values will increase rapidly by over 0.50" as
   the mid to upper 70s F dewpoints arrive. Indicative of this robust
   moisture are cells forming within the warm advection zone just off
   the LA Coast. 

   Therefore, as the primary line of storms moves in from the
   northwest, strengthening may occur especially where the line
   intersects the warm front, with additional cells forming along the
   length of the warm front. Damaging hail and wind will be likely.
   Low-level shear along the warm front may support a brief tornado or
   two as well, with 0-1 SRH values above 100 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Jewell.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29719336 29609406 29229485 29779632 30349664 30739639
               31319562 31499525 31389406 31189334 30549240 29749104
               29339081 29089100 29359182 29519244 29719336 

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