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Mesoscale Discussion 828
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

   Areas affected...Western and South-central Kansas...Texas and
   Oklahoma Panhandles...Northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...199...200...

   Valid 222214Z - 230015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 199,
   200 continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
   through much of the evening as a linear MCS develops and moves
   southeastward across parts of the central and southern Plains.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a fast moving bowing
   line segment across northwest Kansas with more discrete convection
   located south-southwestward into far southeast Colorado and the
   western Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this activity, the RAP is
   analyzing a pocket of moderate to strong instability across
   southwest Kansas and the northern Texas Panhandle where MLCAPE
   values are in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Surface analysis shows a
   narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture from far northwest
   Oklahoma northwestward into southwest Kansas, along which a sharp
   gradient in instability exists. As the linear MCS continues to
   organize over the next few hours, the strongest part of the MCS is
   expected to move southeastward along the instability gradient where
   wind damage will be likely. The cells have been moving southeastward
   in the 40 to 45 kt range but an acceleration should take place as
   the cells congeal into a nearly continuous line. The wind damage
   threat will likely affect parts of central and southern Kansas into
   northwest Oklahoma later this evening where additional weather watch
   issuance is expected. An isolated tornado threat and large hail will
   also be possible with the more dominant supercells within the MCS.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 06/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38889946 39000104 38370216 37920302 37500333 37000314
               36450254 35120071 35529839 36269766 37839777 38889946 

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