|Mesoscale Discussion 828|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...
Valid 312212Z - 312345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #230. Damaging gusts remain the primary concern with a line of
storms moving across the Watch area for the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS with an MCV is propagating eastward
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230, mainly south of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The complex is moving into an
environment characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by
67-70F dewpoints overspread by modest (i.e 6 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates. While instability is rather modest, up to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear is present, with deep-layer shear vectors oriented
roughly orthogonal to the complex. In addition, the MCS is
traversing a relatively broad baroclinic zone, where localized
deep-layer ascent is present and is contributing to storm
organization/sustenance. As such, the convective line is expected to
persist across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230 with
damaging gust potential.
A similar kinematic/thermodynamic downstream environment is expected
east of the ongoing Watch over the next few hours. Storm trends and
ambient environmental conditions will continue to be monitored for
either local watch extensions or a separate WW issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31109840 31479832 32059796 32499764 32579730 32559670
32379625 32179594 30779620 30459713 30549741 31109840
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home