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Mesoscale Discussion 828
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0828
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0512 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

   Valid 312212Z - 312345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch #230. Damaging gusts remain the primary concern with a line of
   storms moving across the Watch area for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS with an MCV is propagating eastward
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230, mainly south of the
   Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The complex is moving into an
   environment characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by
   67-70F dewpoints overspread by modest (i.e 6 C/km) mid-level lapse
   rates. While instability is rather modest, up to 50 kts of effective
   bulk shear is present, with deep-layer shear vectors oriented
   roughly orthogonal to the complex. In addition, the MCS is
   traversing a relatively broad baroclinic zone, where localized
   deep-layer ascent is present and is contributing to storm
   organization/sustenance. As such, the convective line is expected to
   persist across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #230 with
   damaging gust potential. 

   A similar kinematic/thermodynamic downstream environment is expected
   east of the ongoing Watch over the next few hours. Storm trends and
   ambient environmental conditions will continue to be monitored for
   either local watch extensions or a separate WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31109840 31479832 32059796 32499764 32579730 32559670
               32379625 32179594 30779620 30459713 30549741 31109840 

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