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Mesoscale Discussion 836
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0836
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 AM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021114Z - 021315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will remain possible in the
   short term with a small cluster of storms. Watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster that has moved southeastward across
   northwest TX overnight has recently developed an MCV on its northern
   flank, and measured severe wind gusts to 59 mph have been reported
   from two West TX Mesonet sites. Velocity imagery from the KDYX radar
   shows enhanced inbound velocities along the apex of the bowing
   segment. Although the airmass downstream of this convection is only
   very weakly unstable, slightly greater low-level moisture in the
   form of upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints are present per
   recent observations. A rather modest (15-20 kt) southerly low-level
   jet may help maintain storm intensity in the short term, with
   isolated strong to severe wind gusts the main threat. Given the very
   limited thermodynamic environment, the overall severe risk is
   expected to remain too marginal/isolated for watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/02/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33010085 33290063 33450015 33959997 33679865 33099862
               32509896 32339978 32440050 33010085 

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