Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022
Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan...far eastern Upper
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 201732Z - 202000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms crossing Lake Michigan are expected to pose a
damaging wind and hail threat across northern Lower Michigan, and
perhaps into the far eastern Upper Peninsula. A tornado cannot be
ruled out over Lower Michigan.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated storms have formed over
eastern WI, and are now crossing over Lake MI. Cool air aloft in
the mid and upper levels is aiding storm strength with hail cores
noted at times.
Downstream over Lower MI, heating continues, although a capping
inversion remains near 700 mb. High clouds overspreading the area
may retard heating to some degree, but CIN is expected to be reduced
later this afternoon enough to support a continued severe threat as
the storms come off Lake MI. Strong deep-layer shear may also help a
few of these storms survive the capping inversion.
Large hail and damaging gusts appear most likely. If storm mode can
trend toward cellular, and the capping inversion gets removed
sufficiently, then 0-1 SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 could support a tornado
threat, most likely late in the afternoon nearer to peak heating.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44348328 43938362 43838468 43778648 44728631 45088597
46298512 46578462 46558408 45018318 44348328