Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 840
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 840 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0840
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

   Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan...far eastern Upper

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201732Z - 202000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms crossing Lake Michigan are expected to pose a
   damaging wind and hail threat across northern Lower Michigan, and
   perhaps into the far eastern Upper Peninsula. A tornado cannot be
   ruled out over Lower Michigan.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated storms have formed over
   eastern WI, and are now crossing over Lake MI.  Cool air aloft in
   the mid and upper levels is aiding storm strength with hail cores
   noted at times.

   Downstream over Lower MI, heating continues, although a capping
   inversion remains near 700 mb. High clouds overspreading the area
   may retard heating to some degree, but CIN is expected to be reduced
   later this afternoon enough to support a continued severe threat as
   the storms come off Lake MI. Strong deep-layer shear may also help a
   few of these storms survive the capping inversion.

   Large hail and damaging gusts appear most likely. If storm mode can
   trend toward cellular, and the capping inversion gets removed
   sufficiently, then 0-1 SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 could support a tornado
   threat, most likely late in the afternoon nearer to peak heating.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44348328 43938362 43838468 43778648 44728631 45088597
               46298512 46578462 46558408 45018318 44348328 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: January 01, 1970
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities