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Mesoscale Discussion 844
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

   Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

   Valid 201952Z - 202145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornadic supercell may persist as it travels
   east/northeast toward Lake Huron.

   DISCUSSION...The storm complex that crossed Lake MI has indeed
   evolved into a supercell, which has become tornadic as it
   encountered the warmer surface-based air mass. This storm is
   currently producing a tornado near Gaylord, MI.  The air mass
   remains relatively warm for the duration of the expected storm track
   over the next couple hours, and the 19Z APX sounding shows plenty of
   low-level shear with 0-1 values around 280 m2/s2. This is higher
   than objective analysis had earlier indicated. As such, the tornado
   threat is expected to persist until the storm encounters the cooler
   air near the lake.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   LAT...LON   45208476 45458367 45348335 45128326 44998353 44998444
               45038473 45208476 

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