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Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021

   Areas affected...Far East-Central ID...Southwest MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041959Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout
   the afternoon. Some strong to severe storms are possible, with
   damaging wind gusts and isolated hail as the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasingly deep
   cumulus developing over the high terrain of east-central ID and
   adjacent southwest MT over the last two hours. This deepening
   appears to be associated with gradually increasing ascent attendant
   to the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the
   region. This ascent is not overly strong, but it is favorable timed
   with diurnal destabilization and the erosion of any convective
   inhibition. Lightning has already been observed in a few cells
   across the region.

   The expectation is for the overall thunderstorm coverage to
   gradually increase over the next few hours as ascent persists and
   the atmosphere further destabilizes. Current mesoanalysis estimates
   MLCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg across the region, and this modest
   buoyancy is forecast to continue throughout the afternoon. This
   instability coupled with moderate vertical shear will likely support
   strong updrafts, a few of which could produce hail. Additionally,
   given the high-based storm bases and deeply mixed boundary layer,
   strong thunderstorm outflow is also anticipated. Overall storm
   coverage may necessitate watch issuance over eastern portions of the
   region within the next hour or two.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/04/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45331466 46631329 46980986 45950914 44930996 44121360

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