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Mesoscale Discussion 852
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of northern/central OH into northwestern
   PA and western NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211816Z - 212045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and
   intensity this afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail
   possible. Watch issuance will probably be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have recently begun to
   increase in coverage across parts of western/central OH to the south
   of a front. Additional convection will probably form this afternoon
   into northern OH, northwestern PA, and western/central NY along and
   south of a lake breeze. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates and
   robust diurnal heating are supporting moderate to strong
   instability, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-3000 J/kg. Even
   though stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough will
   likely remain displaced to the west of this region, deep-layer shear
   should still be adequate for some updraft organization, with
   multicells possible. Damaging winds will probably be the main threat
   with any robust convection that can develop, but some hail may also
   occur given the steep mid-level lapse rates present. Trends will be
   monitored for increasing thunderstorm coverage, which will probably
   warrant Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance across some part of this
   region in the next couple of hours.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41098375 41558171 42507930 42977800 43367657 43207612
               42787615 42397684 40968051 40158226 39328388 41098375 

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