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Mesoscale Discussion 854
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Areas affected...central and eastern Wyoming...into far western
   Nebraska...and South Dakota.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061827Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken squall line is evolving across western and
   Central Colorado early this afternoon. Storms are expected to
   continue northeastward with additional development possible ahead of
   the line. Strong wind gusts (some significant) will be possible. A
   downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...18z mesoanalysis placed a negatively tilted shortwave
   trough and 80 kt 500 mb speed max across the Four Corners. The wave
   is expected to shift rapidly northeastward over the next few hours.
   Strong ascent and some clearing ahead of the main wave is expected
   to continue to destabilize the lower atmosphere with 250-500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE ahead of the ongoing storms. Some hi-res guidance also shows
   the possibility of additional storm development across central and
   eastern Wyoming. This seems reasonable given warm/moist surface
   conditions with dewpoints in the 40s/50s F and persistent southeast
   upslope flow. Given the strong wind profiles with effective shear of
   50-70 kt, a mix of supercells and bowing segments with severe wind
   gusts (possibly significant) are expected, given the report history
   of the ongoing storms and the continued strong mid-level flow. The
   strong shear and possible supercell mode may support some isolated
   hail and tornado cannot be ruled out. A watch is likely by 20z

   ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   41040876 41050431 41230388 41510387 44980401 44970654
               44850680 44630711 41240897 41040876 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2020
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