|Mesoscale Discussion 855|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020
Areas affected...West-Central into Southern FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061924Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado or two
remain possible from west-central into southern FL.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms, at least one of which
appears to be a supercell, recently developed over Hendry County
before moving northward/north-northeastward towards southern Glades
County and Lake Okeechobee. These storms appeared to initiate in an
area of slightly warmer temperatures and surface confluence. This
confluence band appears to arc northwestward off the west-central FL
coast near SRQ before then continuing northwestward. Shallow
rotating showers have been noted within this band just west of Tampa
Bay, with lightning now beginning with one of these storms.
Recent TBW VAD profiles continue to show vertically veering winds
and strong low-level shear. Most recent observation sampled 0-1 km
bulk shear over 35 kt and 0-1 storm-relative helicity near 280
m2/s2. Low-level winds weaken with southeastward extent, evidenced
by weaker low-level shear from the AMX VAD.
Overall expectation remains the same as described earlier, with a
few storms occasionally becoming strong enough to produce a damaging
wind gust or brief tornado.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 27308278 27908332 28248288 27948201 27568150 26898093
26328068 25688075 25468112 25748180 26508226 27308278
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