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Mesoscale Discussion 855
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0855
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

   Areas affected...West-Central into Southern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061924Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado or two
   remain possible from west-central into southern FL.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms, at least one of which
   appears to be a supercell, recently developed over Hendry County
   before moving northward/north-northeastward towards southern Glades
   County and Lake Okeechobee. These storms appeared to initiate in an
   area of slightly warmer temperatures and surface confluence. This
   confluence band appears to arc northwestward off the west-central FL
   coast near SRQ before then continuing northwestward. Shallow
   rotating showers have been noted within this band just west of Tampa
   Bay, with lightning now beginning with one of these storms.

   Recent TBW VAD profiles continue to show vertically veering winds
   and strong low-level shear. Most recent observation sampled 0-1 km
   bulk shear over 35 kt and 0-1 storm-relative helicity near 280
   m2/s2. Low-level winds weaken with southeastward extent, evidenced
   by weaker low-level shear from the AMX VAD. 

   Overall expectation remains the same as described earlier, with a
   few storms occasionally becoming strong enough to produce a damaging
   wind gust or brief tornado.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27308278 27908332 28248288 27948201 27568150 26898093
               26328068 25688075 25468112 25748180 26508226 27308278 

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Page last modified: June 06, 2020
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