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Mesoscale Discussion 867
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0867
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

   Areas affected...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...

   Valid 252249Z - 260045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds will
   likely persist for another 2-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...The strongest activity within WW 237 remains a
   supercell moving southeast, south of Marfa. However, this storm has
   shown a weakening trend on the MRMS 7 and 9 km CAPPI. With storm
   outflow pushing into the Davis Mountains, the most likely areas for
   additional storm development will be along that outflow boundary
   arcing westward from the weakening storm. There will be a very
   modest increase in the low-level jet in the region. It does not
   appear likely, though, that convective coverage will increase given
   that nocturnal stabilization will have begun prior to the jet
   strengthening. The overall severe threat is expected to remain
   somewhat isolated, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
   threats over the next 2-3 hours.

   ..Wendt.. 05/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30660331 30890388 30880432 31020468 31060498 30750507
               30620496 30210482 29620443 28980345 28940314 29300265
               29800265 30660331 

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