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Mesoscale Discussion 868
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0868
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

   Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 252331Z - 260100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible
   this evening, with a threat for hail and localized severe gusts.
   Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...At 2315 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster over southeast CO
   is approaching the far western TX/OK Panhandles, with other storms
   intensifying farther southwest toward the Raton Mesa. Modest
   destabilization (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) has occurred downstream,
   with some towering cumulus noted to the west and northwest of
   Tucumcari. With recent observations suggesting the presence of a
   modest cold pool associated with the southeast CO storm cluster, and
   some increase in a southeasterly low-level jet expected with time,
   an increase in storm coverage is expected this evening into extreme
   northeast NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles. 

   Midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but a favorably veered
   wind profile is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, with a
   tendency toward somewhat greater shear values with southward extent.
   The ongoing storm cluster may become better organized as it
   continues to move southeastward, with a threat for a couple
   supercells along its southwestward flank. If a small MCS can become
   better organized, the threat for isolated to scattered severe gusts
   will increase this evening. Otherwise, any sustained supercells will
   pose a threat for hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a brief

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37110299 36860224 36530206 35630190 35110213 34610251
               34510322 34830438 35300508 36250516 36740474 37110299 

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