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Mesoscale Discussion 869
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0869
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

   Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 260202Z - 260330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and localized severe gusts
   continues. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...At 02 UTC, a long-lived thunderstorm cluster is moving
   southeastward across far northeast NM and the western OK Panhandle,
   with supercells ongoing near/north of Tucumcari, and another
   supercell moving into western Harding County, NM. Favorably steep
   midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z ABQ and AMA soundings) and
   MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support vigorous
   convection into late evening. Veering wind profiles with 35-45 kt of
   effective shear will continue to support organized storms. 

   Evolution of convection into late evening remains somewhat
   uncertain. In the short term, the ongoing slow-moving supercells
   will likely pose the primary severe hazard. Recent VWPs from KAMA
   indicate that the forecast increase in low-level southeasterly flow
   is underway, with a modest strengthening of low-level shear
   potentially supporting a brief tornado threat with any persistent
   supercell. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
   remain possible. With time, cell mergers into the ongoing storm
   cluster approaching the northwest TX Panhandle may support somewhat
   organized upscale growth, with an attendant increase in severe-gust
   potential later tonight. 

   Some severe threat may spread southeastward out of WW 238 later
   tonight, and downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
   short-term observational trends.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35970485 36670336 36860255 36710198 35830194 34260187
               34220315 34580375 34910433 35250488 35970485 

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