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Mesoscale Discussion 872
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and South-Central Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261753Z - 261930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of severe hail/wind will be
   possible into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite depicts isolated convective
   development occurring over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Somewhat
   marginal yet sufficient low-level moisture resides across the high
   terrain, with surface dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to
   near 50 F. Strong heating this morning has allowed temperatures to
   warm into the mid to upper 60s F, and strong mid-level lapse rates
   (7-8 C/km) are fostering MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Effective shear is
   forecast remain somewhat marginal across this region through the
   afternoon (25-30 kt), residing along the northern fringe of stronger
   flow farther to the south. These conditions should limit the overall
   severity of the convective activity, however, the strongest storms
   will be capable of hail and wind gusts exceeding severe thresholds,
   particularly as this activity spreads east and moves off the high

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35660495 35230589 35350627 35820625 36550563 36940549
               37610509 37780466 37610421 36720425 36160450 35660495 

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