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Mesoscale Discussion 873
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0873
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas of eastern Wyoming and much of eastern
   Colorado...and into far western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261756Z - 262000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of
   southeastern Wyoming and the Colorado Front Range will
   increase/expand with time this afternoon.  WW issuance will likely
   be required by 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show rather
   widespread convective development underway across the higher terrain
   of central Colorado and northward into the Laramie Range of
   southeastern Wyoming.  Storm coverage and intensity are forecast to
   increase with time, shifting eastward off the terrain into a
   modestly moist, favorably destabilizing airmass where mixed-layer
   CAPE now near 1000 J/kg is indicated.  Additional heating, combined
   with very steep mid-level lapse rates, will permit additional
   destabilization -- ultimately supporting robust updrafts.

   Though flow aloft -- particularly at mid levels -- remains modest
   per area VWPs, marked veering with height, from southeasterly to
   southwesterly in the lowest 3km AGL, is noted.  This, combined with
   the favorable thermodynamics, will result in organized updrafts,
   including rotation within more sustained storms.  Along with
   potential for large hail, locally damaging winds will also be
   possible as the deepening mixed layer promotes sub-cloud
   evaporation.  Wind risk may increase somewhat late this afternoon
   and into this evening, as it appears that upscale growth into at
   least semi-organized linear storm mode will occur, as storms spread
   off the higher terrain.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39740555 41080566 41910652 42870628 43490547 43630409
               40770325 38620242 37590302 37480510 38350575 39250544

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