Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern KS...Western MO...Northeast OK...Far
   Northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211915Z - 212115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated this
   afternoon from eastern Kansas into western Missouri, northeast
   Oklahoma, and far northwest Arkansas. All severe hazards are
   possible and a watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated
   cumulus ahead of a surface trough extending arcing southeastward
   into northeast KS and then back southwestward from east-central KS
   through north-central OK. The airmass preceding this boundary is
   characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints in
   the upper 60s/low 70s, and strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis  
   estimates MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg is currently in place, with the
   18Z TOP sounding sampling 3100 J/kg. This same sounding revealed
   that much of the convective inhibition has been eroded, although the
   warm-layer between 800-700 mb could still result in updrafts
   struggling to mature. The general expectation is that additional
   heating should help diminish the effect of that warm layer even
   more, with both increasing large-scale ascent and convergence along
   the boundary providing the lift needed for convective initiation.
   This initiation will likely begin in the northeast KS/Kansas City
   vicinity before expanding southward/southwestward over time.

   Deep-layer shear is strong enough to support organized
   updrafts/supercells, with all severe hazards possible. Given the
   strong buoyancy, most prominent hazard appears to be large to very
   large hail. Strong downdrafts appear possible as well. Low-level
   flow is a bit weaker in this region that areas farther south,
   resulting in a modest weakness in the hodograph, which could act to
   inhibit tornadogenesis. However, given the likely organized
   character to the storms, there is still some tornado potential with
   any discrete storm. A watch will likely be needed soon to address
   these hazards.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39999502 40479441 40339322 38629301 36579381 35999517
               36259658 37979582 39999502