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Mesoscale Discussion 874
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 261950Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
   couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon/evening. One or
   more watches will likely be needed later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Residual convective activity from an overnight MCS is
   now moving through portions of northwest Texas, leaving a cold pool
   in its wake across portions of west Texas into far southeastern New
   Mexico. Visible satellite observations show gradual clearing
   occurred over most of the region this morning into the early
   afternoon, which has allowed for rapid airmass recovery and
   destabilization, with the exception of the eastern slopes of the
   Sacramento Mountains where cloud cover has remained. Where clearing
   has occurred, surface temperatures have risen into mid 70s F amid
   rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in
   the 50s and low 60s F. These surface conditions, combined with steep
   mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km, are yielding MLCAPE values
   near 1500-2000 J/kg. 

   Meanwhile, water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis depict an
   approaching weak trough and associated vorticity maxima, embedded
   within broad southwesterly mid-level flow. Backed low-level easterly
   winds exist along and north or the remnant outflow, with
   southeasterly upslope flow residing south of the boundary. These
   conditions are yielding effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, which
   should become more widespread with time.

   Current satellite/radar trends show isolated convective development
   occurring over the high terrain of central New Mexico, with repeated
   convective attempts farther south along the Sacramento Range. Given
   these trends and the aforementioned environmental conditions, the
   current expectation is for a few focused corridors of supercells to
   develop in proximity to the aforementioned regions, as well as
   farther south over portions of west Texas, and spread east this
   afternoon and evening. This scenario is supported by recent
   CAMs/WoFS guidance. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should remain
   the primary hazards. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible,
   particularly with any storm that moves off the high terrain into the
   richer low-level moisture/shear environment along and north of the
   outflow boundary.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30490269 30310381 31660476 32470528 32810575 33660583
               34390639 34830676 35400611 35370468 34710312 33260238
               31870231 30490269 

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