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Mesoscale Discussion 874
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222004Z - 222130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur with the stronger
   storms that develop along an east-west boundary. A WW issuance is
   not expected since the severe threat should be sparse and short

   DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection has recently increased in
   coverage and intensity and is expected to continue doing so along a
   diffuse east-west baroclinic zone in eastern GA in advance of a
   decaying MCS/cold pool. Surface temperatures are exceeding 90F amid
   lower 70s F dewpoints, contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. With
   low-level lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km within a moist but deeply
   mixed boundary layer, wet downbursts may accompany the stronger
   storm cores, perhaps supporting a couple of strong to potentially
   damaging gusts. However, the severe threat is expected to remain
   quite isolated and short lived and a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/22/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31308320 31598363 32278390 32948414 33368398 33388328
               33208242 32988177 32828143 32548093 32318074 32018081
               31768103 31538162 31398243 31308320 

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