Mesoscale Discussion 0875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023
Areas affected...the northern High Plains region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262042Z - 262245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds and hail is forecast to
increase over the next few hours as storms develop. WW issuance may
be required by 6 PM.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis locates a weak surface low over
central Wyoming north of Rawlins, and a trough/front extending
northeastward across southeastern Montana and northwestern North
Dakota. Visible satellite/radar loops show convection increasing
across the central Wyoming area, in the vicinity the low, and
northeastward along the surface boundary, as daytime heating of the
modestly moist (50s surface dewpoints) boundary layer across the
region yielding 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.
Given somewhat weak flow aloft, severe risk with the
initial/developing convection should remain limited/pulse-like.
With time, however, increasing convective coverage may result in
upscale growth into a northeastward-moving, semi-organized band of
convection by early evening. This could result in an uptick wind
risk, with WW issuance possible in the next few hours in
anticipation of the gradually increasing severe risk.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 46480863 47020721 47080487 46780370 44720325 43460358
43460690 44570719 45150849 45770902 46480863