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Mesoscale Discussion 875
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0875
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas affected...the northern High Plains region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262042Z - 262245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds and hail is forecast to
   increase over the next few hours as storms develop.  WW issuance may
   be required by 6 PM.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis locates a weak surface low over
   central Wyoming north of Rawlins, and a trough/front extending
   northeastward across southeastern Montana and northwestern North
   Dakota.  Visible satellite/radar loops show convection increasing
   across the central Wyoming area, in the vicinity the low, and
   northeastward along the surface boundary, as daytime heating of the
   modestly moist (50s surface dewpoints) boundary layer across the
   region yielding 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

   Given somewhat weak flow aloft, severe risk with the
   initial/developing convection should remain limited/pulse-like. 
   With time, however, increasing convective coverage may result in
   upscale growth into a northeastward-moving, semi-organized band of
   convection by early evening.  This could result in an uptick wind
   risk, with WW issuance possible in the next few hours in
   anticipation of the gradually increasing severe risk.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46480863 47020721 47080487 46780370 44720325 43460358
               43460690 44570719 45150849 45770902 46480863 

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