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Mesoscale Discussion 875
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0875
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into NY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

   Valid 222015Z - 222145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261

   SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
   continues. Downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
   along a pre-frontal trough from central NY southward to far northern
   VA. Somewhat stronger instability is present from parts of
   central/eastern PA into MD and northern VA, as temperatures have
   generally warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across these
   areas. With latest mesoanalysis showing a swath of steepened
   low-level lapse rates due to a well-mixed boundary layer ahead of
   the ongoing convection, scattered damaging winds should continue to
   be the main severe threat. Still, modest enhancement to the
   mid-level west-southwesterly flow may encourage some updraft
   organization, and marginally severe hail may occur with the
   strongest cores. Current expectations are for this activity to
   spread eastward across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   261 over the next couple of hours. Depending on convective trends,
   either a new, small Severe Thunderstorm Watch or local extension in
   area may eventually be needed across parts of NJ into southern NY.

   ..Gleason.. 05/22/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38887775 39907772 40947706 41427658 42327569 42747522
               42337451 41597436 41457357 40827374 40337399 39197508
               38757578 38777742 38887775 

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