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Mesoscale Discussion 885
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0885
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern South Carolina into far
   southwest North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232011Z - 232145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes may occur if convective trends
   continue to trend upwards. A Tornado Watch issuance is possible in
   the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear continues to immediately precede
   the surface low center. The 1948Z GSP VWP depicts long, curved
   hodographs with 450 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 300 m2/s2 in the
   0-1 km layer. In addition, greater insolation has been able to occur
   closer to the low, with surface temperatures warming into the 75-77F
   range amid 70+ F dewpoints very close to the belt of stronger
   low-level flow. It is possible that some of this more buoyant air
   may get entrained into the low ahead of a deepening band of
   convection which has recently begun to show signs of low-topped
   supercell development, especially in Hart County GA. Given the ample
   low-level shear, further intensification of the storms along the
   GA/SC line may support a more unconditional risk of isolated
   tornadoes. As such, convective trends are closely being monitored
   for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34088252 34278266 34538278 34898279 35298202 35408138
               35348101 35218068 34948056 34648070 34418094 34318143
               34088252 

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