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Mesoscale Discussion 888
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0888
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

   Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232241Z - 240045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are possible with
   thunderstorms this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch does not
   appear warranted.

   DISCUSSION...A weak mid-level short-wave trough appears to be
   embedded within southerly stream over west-central TX. In response
   to this feature, a cluster of storms has evolved into a weak MCS
   that is propagating northeast ahead of the short wave. Latest radar
   data depicts a weak MCV near ABI and this feature supports
   longer-lived organization going forward. Over the last hour or so,
   robust updrafts have evolved along the southern flank of this
   complex where surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s and
   surface-3km lapse rates are around 8 C/km. Additionally,
   southeast/northwest-oriented boundary is draped just downstream,
   arcing into this feature along I-20. While mid- high-level flow is
   not particularly strong at this longitude, there appears to be
   adequate flow/buoyancy for further development just downstream,
   especially along a corridor from near San Saba to Hillsboro. Gusty
   winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail are the primary
   threats.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/23/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30889852 32839810 32589639 30699703 30889852 

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