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Mesoscale Discussion 896
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0896
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020

   Areas affected...southern through northeast IN...west-central and
   northwest OH...southern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 101522Z - 101645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely initiate along the surface
   trough over southwest and west-central IN prior to 12pm EDT.  Storms
   will develop/intensify as they move northeast during the early
   afternoon as they organize into clusters/bands of storms.  Damaging
   gusts primarily in the 55-75 mph range are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows towering cumulus from
   near Evansville north to Greencastle, IN along the wind shift
   boundary.  Surface observations over IN have warmed into the mid 80s
   with dewpoints generally in the 73-74 deg F range (per reliable ASOS
   compared to AWOS showing artificially too high dewpoints 77-79 deg
   F).  These surface conditions input into the 8am EDT Wilmington, OH
   observed sounding, are yielding around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE.  KIND VAD
   shows around 50-55 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer.  Once storms develop
   and mature, water-loading and momentum transfer will favor damaging
   gusts with maximum wind speeds generally in the 55-75 mph range with
   the stronger downdrafts.  The greatest coverage of severe gusts will
   likely focus in eastern IN/western OH where peak storm maturity, in
   the form of small bowing segments/cluster, is expected this

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/10/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38858725 40608648 42108519 42218432 41808384 41348384
               38928550 38578601 38668679 38858725 

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