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Mesoscale Discussion 903
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

   Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

   Valid 310045Z - 310215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity within the
   western OK/TX Panhandles. Strong/severe wind gusts are the main
   threat with isolated large hail also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Updraft development has started to increase in far
   northeastern New Mexico over the last hour. Most of these storms
   have only shown modest strength. With area VAD profile showing an
   increase in low-level southeasterly winds, the expectation is for
   storm coverage and, eventually, intensity to increase as they move
   into the TX/OK Panhandles. A radar fine line feature on KAMA imagery
   has been present along the Caprock for several hours. This feature
   has shown some westward progress recently in combination with the
   low-level winds. This appears to be a subtle moisture boundary. The
   00Z AMA sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates (around 9
   C/km) with little MLCIN. Efficient outflow production is expected
   which will promote strong to severe wind gusts. Large hail remains a
   possibility, but this is expected to occur with initial updraft
   pulses and be more isolated than wind damage.

   ..Wendt.. 05/31/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35320317 36580299 37030252 37280167 37050100 36760083
               35780122 35090194 34850245 34900281 34970303 35100322

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