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Mesoscale Discussion 903
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest into North-Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

   Valid 242149Z - 242345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across ww269, especially
   across western portions of the watch over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating immediately south of the front
   has contributed to substantial buoyancy across the Edwards Plateau
   into central TX, where surface-3km lapse rates are now between 8-9.5
   C/km. Scattered severe thunderstorms have evolved along the dryline
   from northern Val Verde County to near SJT. One significant
   supercell has matured just downstream along the cold front over
   southern Coleman County and this storm will likely track along the
   boundary across southern Brown into southern Comanche County over
   the next 2hr. Aside from very large hail capabilities, some local
   tornado threat may be noted with any supercell that tracks along the
   boundary. With time, approaching speed max will encourage an
   upward-evolving cluster of storms to spread into the northwestern
   portions of ww269. At that point, a forward propagating MCS will
   likely begin spreading toward central TX.

   ..Darrow.. 05/24/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29390169 31280169 33849544 31969544 29390169 

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