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Mesoscale Discussion 911
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272337Z - 280230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered convection should continue and increase across
   portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the evening. Strong wind gusts and
   a brief tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has inhibited widespread destabilization
   across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening. Storms have
   developed along the warm front in eastern Virginia, within the warm
   sector in central Virginia, and along/ahead a cold front across
   eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia. The storm
   environment is mostly characterized by weak-moderate buoyancy
   (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) and marginal shear (effective bulk shear
   30-35 knots). 

   As the warm front lifts north, there will be a relatively confined
   area (see Marginal area in Day 1 Convective Outlook) in northern
   Virginia, Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania where low-level
   shear will increase (effective SRH 200-300 m2/s2 and RAP soundings
   depict favorable hodograph curvature). Low-level flow will increase
   (10-15 knots) and veer with height during 00-06z in response to an
   upper-level shortwave trough moving into the region. This may
   provide a window for storms to intensify and develop rotation that
   would increase the likelihood of strong wind gusts and a brief
   tornado. Overall, the risk for severe weather should remain
   isolated, most likely precluding any watch issuance.

   ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41447836 41377920 40087920 38697902 37877894 37927806
               37927696 37997623 38087574 38667574 39747593 40327627
               40977671 41437741 41447836 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2018
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