Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 911
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 911 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272337Z - 280230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered convection should continue and increase across
   portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the evening. Strong wind gusts and
   a brief tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has inhibited widespread destabilization
   across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening. Storms have
   developed along the warm front in eastern Virginia, within the warm
   sector in central Virginia, and along/ahead a cold front across
   eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania/northern West Virginia. The storm
   environment is mostly characterized by weak-moderate buoyancy
   (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg) and marginal shear (effective bulk shear
   30-35 knots). 

   As the warm front lifts north, there will be a relatively confined
   area (see Marginal area in Day 1 Convective Outlook) in northern
   Virginia, Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania where low-level
   shear will increase (effective SRH 200-300 m2/s2 and RAP soundings
   depict favorable hodograph curvature). Low-level flow will increase
   (10-15 knots) and veer with height during 00-06z in response to an
   upper-level shortwave trough moving into the region. This may
   provide a window for storms to intensify and develop rotation that
   would increase the likelihood of strong wind gusts and a brief
   tornado. Overall, the risk for severe weather should remain
   isolated, most likely precluding any watch issuance.

   ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/27/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41447836 41377920 40087920 38697902 37877894 37927806
               37927696 37997623 38087574 38667574 39747593 40327627
               40977671 41437741 41447836 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: June 28, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities