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Mesoscale Discussion 915
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0554 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Areas affected...Western and Northern Nebraska...Central and Eastern
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

   Valid 232254Z - 240100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
   to continue for several more hours from western and northern
   Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota. An isolated tornado
   threat may continue across parts of southwest Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low over
   central South Dakota with a cold front extending southward from
   western South Dakota into western Nebraska. A line of strong to
   severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the front. To the east of
   this line, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F, and the
   RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE in
   the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings from North Platte
   northeastward into southern South Dakota generally have 0-6 km shear
   in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
   C/km. This environment will support a severe threat, with isolated
   large hail and wind damage possible. The wind damage threat will be
   the greatest along the most intense parts of the line. A potential
   for supercells will exist near the southern end of the line, to the
   west of North Platte. In this vicinity, LCL heights are a bit lower
   and surface dewpoints are near 60 F. This could be enough for an
   isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete
   this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42080215 41640252 41260251 41030238 40850200 40820160
               40930102 41140077 41410055 42000009 43679862 44479810
               44929794 45269795 45419823 45379895 44929935 44369979
               43350065 42080215 

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