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Mesoscale Discussion 916
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0916
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

   Areas affected...Northwest North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

   Valid 110421Z - 110615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254

   SUMMARY...Severe wind, including significant wind gusts, will remain
   likely as a strong line of storms moves across northwest North
   Dakota over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across western ND has a history
   of producing severe hail and measured winds over 60 mph with a few
   reports of 70-90 mph gusts. Radar imagery from KGGW and KMBX shows a
   well organized squall line that is showing signs of a bowing segment
   and accompanying rear inflow jet on the northern edge. This line
   will continue to propagate to the north/northeast across northwest
   ND on the edge of the instability gradient over the next 1-2 hours.
   50-70 knot effective bulk shear will help maintain storm
   organization, and increasing low-level flow (60-70 knots observed in
   the lowest 1-2 km layer per KBMX VWP observations) in the vicinity
   of the advancing surface low suggest a high probability of severe,
   and possibly significant severe, wind gusts as the lines progresses
   towards the international border.

   ..Moore.. 06/11/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48040440 48620441 49080413 49070086 49060019 48780008
               48290041 47830147 47380265 47200343 47340394 48040440 

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