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Mesoscale Discussion 926
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast GA...Upstate SC...Western NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261825Z - 262030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and a tornado or two
   will evolve with time this afternoon, as thunderstorms increase in
   coverage. The need for a watch is uncertain at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across
   northeast GA into upstate SC, near and south of a warm front that is
   slowly lifting northward toward western NC. Midlevel lapse rates are
   generally weak across this region, but diurnal heating and rich
   low-level moisture are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along and
   south of the warm front. Continued heating/destabilization and
   negligible MLCINH should contribute to increasing storm coverage
   with time, both near the warm front and southward across the warm
   sector.  

   Effective shear currently around 30 kt is only marginally favorable
   for storm organization, but this may gradually increase with time
   this afternoon, as stronger midlevel flow moves over the region in
   advance of the deep-layer cyclone moving across southern MO.
   Organized storm clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells will be
   possible later this afternoon as storms mature. 

   In addition to the threat for locally damaging wind gusts and
   isolated marginal hail, a brief tornado or two will be possible near
   the warm front, where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced. The
   tendency for storms to rather quickly traverse the frontal zone may
   tend to limit the tornado threat to some extent, however. The need
   for watch issuance is uncertain, but remains possible depending on
   observational and storm intensity trends through the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/26/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35418102 35208079 34308112 33658161 33668268 33788323
               34828320 35248271 35428193 35538120 35418102 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2022
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