Mesoscale Discussion 0926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022
Areas affected...Northeast GA...Upstate SC...Western NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261825Z - 262030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and a tornado or two
will evolve with time this afternoon, as thunderstorms increase in
coverage. The need for a watch is uncertain at this time.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across
northeast GA into upstate SC, near and south of a warm front that is
slowly lifting northward toward western NC. Midlevel lapse rates are
generally weak across this region, but diurnal heating and rich
low-level moisture are supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along and
south of the warm front. Continued heating/destabilization and
negligible MLCINH should contribute to increasing storm coverage
with time, both near the warm front and southward across the warm
Effective shear currently around 30 kt is only marginally favorable
for storm organization, but this may gradually increase with time
this afternoon, as stronger midlevel flow moves over the region in
advance of the deep-layer cyclone moving across southern MO.
Organized storm clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells will be
possible later this afternoon as storms mature.
In addition to the threat for locally damaging wind gusts and
isolated marginal hail, a brief tornado or two will be possible near
the warm front, where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced. The
tendency for storms to rather quickly traverse the frontal zone may
tend to limit the tornado threat to some extent, however. The need
for watch issuance is uncertain, but remains possible depending on
observational and storm intensity trends through the afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35418102 35208079 34308112 33658161 33668268 33788323
34828320 35248271 35428193 35538120 35418102