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Mesoscale Discussion 936
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0936
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190101Z - 190300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and perhaps a damaging gust or two
   are possible until sunset. Afterwards, the severe threat is expected
   gradually wane with nocturnal cooling. Given the isolated and brief
   nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively vigorous updrafts have become somewhat
   sustained over the past couple of hours. While most storms have been
   pulse-like in nature, one storm along the Coke/Tom Green County
   border has been persistent in maintaining intensity. KSJT
   dual-polarimetric data and MRMS MESH data indicate that severe hail
   (including occasional 2+ inch hail) may be occurring with this
   storm. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and associated 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE (per latest Mesoanalysis) suggest that severe hail will
   remain possible through the remainder of daylight.

   However, the ongoing convection is strongly diurnal in nature, and a
   weakening trend is expected after sunset, when the well-mixed
   boundary layer begins to decouple. The spatially and temporally
   limited severe threat suggests a WW issuance is not needed at this
   time.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31000186 31830229 32580185 33040088 32559949 31529895
               30789916 30500125 31000186 

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Page last modified: June 19, 2020
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