|Mesoscale Discussion 947|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming...far southwest North
Dakota...western South Dakota...and the northwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281946Z - 282145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 20-21Z.
DISCUSSION...Widespread mid and upper-level broken clouds have
slowed heating across much of the central and northern High Plains
so far today. Nonetheless, some heating into the mid-upper 70s has
occurred with SPC mesoanalysis showing weakening inhibition across
the warm sector. A few storms have developed in southeastern
Montana, but have not shown robust updraft growth thus far. A bit
more heating is likely needed to support stronger updrafts and a
greater severe weather threat.
The evolution may be somewhat slow, but eventually expect an
organized severe weather threat to develop, perhaps evolving from
the convection in Johnson/Natrona counties at 1945Z. The very deeply
mixed boundary layer will support significant sub-cloud evaporative
cooling and strong downdraft development with some wind gusts in
excess of 65 knots possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43210615 44300624 45950510 46610402 46240269 45290198
43820188 42810273 42530393 42630484 43210615
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