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Mesoscale Discussion 947
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0947
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming...far southwest North
   Dakota...western South Dakota...and the northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281946Z - 282145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the
   afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread mid and upper-level broken clouds have
   slowed heating across much of the central and northern High Plains
   so far today. Nonetheless, some heating into the mid-upper 70s has
   occurred with SPC mesoanalysis showing weakening inhibition across
   the warm sector. A few storms have developed in southeastern
   Montana, but have not shown robust updraft growth thus far. A bit
   more heating is likely needed to support stronger updrafts and a
   greater severe weather threat. 

   The evolution may be somewhat slow, but eventually expect an
   organized severe weather threat to develop, perhaps evolving from
   the convection in Johnson/Natrona counties at 1945Z. The very deeply
   mixed boundary layer will support significant sub-cloud evaporative
   cooling and strong downdraft development with some wind gusts in
   excess of 65 knots possible.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43210615 44300624 45950510 46610402 46240269 45290198
               43820188 42810273 42530393 42630484 43210615 

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